Edgar Fiedler

We're not very good at forecasting, and we don't know how to measure the impact of economic policy. ”

The public hasn't learned that businesses don't pay taxes: only people do. They're confused, and this makes an adviser's job all the harder. ”

Forecasting is a maddening occupation. It is always fascinating and exciting and rewarding. yet it is also regularly exasperating and infuriating, occasionally even deranging. ”

The general public still expects a lot more forecasting accuracy than any of us can deliver. ”

Ask five economists and you'll get five different answers - six if one went to Harvard. ”

He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. ”

Experience shows that a recession is never the result of just a few large industries dragging the economy down while the others continue to expand. ”

At some risk of oversimplification, I suggest that the usual reason a business cycle turns into a monster is an overdose of government policy. ”

If we're going to forecast the business cycle, surely it is a good idea to know the business cycle. Sounds reasonable, but it's not that easy. ”

The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. ”