Edgar Fiedler

If a proposal doesn't prove out as expected when we run it, sometimes we change the model. ”

In a sense, there are as many forecasting methods as there are forecasters. But I would argue that most projections are derived from two major methods: macro-econometric models and eclectic judgment. ”

Expansions do not die of old age. The probability of recession in the following year is the same for a three-year-old expansion as it is for a five- or six-year-old expansion. ”

There is no formula that will guarantee success in forecasting, no magic words that will part the clouds. The real problem, as the old saw puts it, is that the future lies ahead. ”

To qualify as a recession, economic activity must decline in an absolute sense; a mere slowdown in real growth is not enough. ”