Edgar Fiedler

Expansions do not die of old age. The probability of recession in the following year is the same for a three-year-old expansion as it is for a five- or six-year-old expansion.

There is no formula that will guarantee success in forecasting, no magic words that will part the clouds. The real problem, as the old saw puts it, is that the future lies ahead.

To qualify as a recession, economic activity must decline in an absolute sense; a mere slowdown in real growth is not enough.